September 8, 2008

Predictions

Tomorrow is Apple's "Let's Rock" event. Considering the time of year, a holiday season iPod refresh is expected by everyone. There are, of course, rumors of all sorts of other things too. But we'll get back to that.
Taking a look at Apple's stock (AAPL) today, we see a considerable drop in value. This is strange considering tomorrow's event. Historically, we see an uptick before an Apple event as anticipation mounts, with a sharp drop right after as people cash in and/or are disappointed. Why the down tick then? Well, I've heard it suggested that some big players are fiddling with the market, that the whole market is down (which is kinda true), and that there just isn't much expected from this event.
That last one is what certain analysts are saying of tomorrow; that it will disappoint. I disagree. Apple itself is unusually vocal about the importance of this event - which it would never do without justification. So I'm saying we're going to see more than just your average iPod refresh. Also notable, expectations aren't that high in the first place - so I don't think anyone is actually going to be disappointed. So, putting my money where my mouth is, I have picked up more Apple shares while the fruit is ripe (ha ha).
Oh, Microsoft is also pegged to release new Zunes tomorrow. Which is hilarious. Not only does no one care about the Zune - they especially won't notice because of the Apple event.

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